New Delhi (SunstarTV Bureau): The centre today strongly refuted as “baseless and false” a New York Times report that estimated 42 lakh deaths due to Covid-19 in India in a worst case scenario, 13.3 times the official toll of 3,15,235.
While the government’s rebuttal was in the context of the NYT report, it sought to make a broader point that many of estimates of “under reported” deaths in India were based on assumptions lacking evidence. The report was “totally baseless and absolutely false” as estimations by the publication are not backed by any evidence and are incorrect, it said. Niti Aayog member (health) Dr V K Paul said the report is based on “distorted estimates” that consider the government’s sero-survey findings for determining the infection spread but select an arbitrary number to calculate mortality rate for that incidence of infection.
In detailed comments, he said the problem arises when a certain number is thrown in as mortality. “As per our estimates, infection fatality is 0.05% (calculated on findings of sero survey) and case fatality rate is 1.15% (based on reported cases). When somebody attaches a number without thinking or understanding…they (NYT) are taking 0.3% IFR (infection fatality rate) which is six times of 0.05% and (also) 0.6% is 12 times. On what basis? No basis at all,” Dr Paul said.
The government’s annoyance was palpable, as Dr Paul and health ministry joint secretary Lav Agarwal questioned the basis of the report’s estimate. “The (NYT) estimates have been done ad hoc and without any basis; there are two parts — quoted cases is what percentage of viral infections. Because this virus infects a large number of people only some people get symptoms. This is well-known. There is a universe where infection is not known — if it is to be ascertained, every day or every week the entire population needs to be tested…saying that the infection is 10-15 times of reported, it doesn’t bother,” Dr Paul said. He pointed out that infection in US cities too is also shown to be several times more than reported cases.
Infection fatality is the percentage of deaths out of the total number of people infected, whereas case fatality rate refers to the percentage of death based on reported cases.
Asserting that there is no question of concealing Covidrelated deaths, the government said India has a robust system for registration of deaths. “The question does not arise that Covid-related deaths are getting concealed because since the beginning, our efforts have been that all cases and deaths are reported in a transparent manner,” Agarwal said.
The report titled “Just how big could India’s true Covid toll be” estimated 600,000 deaths due to the infection in the country in a conservative scenario, 1.6 million estimated deaths in a more likely scenario and 4.2 million estimated deaths in a worse scenario.
Dismissing the estimates as assumptions, Dr Paul said the report should not have been published. “On what basis this group pulls out infection mortality rate of 0.3% in one scenario and 0.15% another scenario and 0.6% in another scenario?”, Dr Paul said.
(Sources: Times of India)
